Mathematical Modeling of Electric Generation and consumption in the Philippines
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Date
2019
Authors
Allen James R. Barlis and Juvelyn G. Almuete
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Abstract
Mathematical models are often interested in predicting the value of a variable at some time in the future. Perhaps it is a population, a real estate value or the number of people with certain diseases. Often a mathematical model can help us understand a behavior better or may aid us in planning for the future. Mathematical models can generate conclusions that can be interpreted to help decision makes plan for the future. This study used 3 models (Malthusian, Hyperbolic and Logistic) and another model formulated by the researchers, which they called as the Bounded Exponential Growth model, to visualize electric consumption and generation in the Philippines. These models were used to predict the electric generation and consumption of the Philippines in the next 25 years. The predicted electric generation and consumption were compared to each other to determine if there will be a shortage in the next 25 years. The Malthusian, Logistic and Bounded Exponential growth models predicted that there will be no shortage in the next 25 years. On the contrary, the Hyperbolic growth model predicted that there will be a shortage in the year 2026. Overall, based on the level of significance and Root Mean Square Error, the Hyperbolic Model produced the most accurate predicted value among the 5 models.
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Research Subject Categories::MATHEMATICS